Rational belief

My son and I misspent his ski-holidays from school visiting Paris because none of us liked winter sports and my son claimed that he had forgotten how Paris looked like. When we visited Paris together last time, he was only 5 years old and had neither interest for history nor for fashion. He was then still a carefree child with a predilection for elevators and escalators. So the Louvre and Parisian metro were great, but Notre Dame couldn’t keep him for more than 5 minutes–there was no elevator or escalator at all.

Nowadays the same kid has turned a thoughtful teenager who knows more about European history than I do. Instead of just being taken to somewhere, he now enjoys discussing with me about the places to be explored. Paris was his idea and he told me that he would like to enter Notre Dame. I happily agreed. This time we spent almost a whole hour quietly observing the Mass in Notre Dame. Seldom did we have such a long duration of silence with each other. My son seemed to be magnetized with the elegance and serenity of the ceremony. I keep wondering what thoughts were crossing his curious mind, but decided not to disturb the peace.

Standing still In the imposing cathedral resounded with celestial music, I couldn’t help thinking about those recurring questions from my son and myself. Does God exist? Why do people believe in God?  I had honestly admitted to my son that I don’t know whether there is a God or not. But it doesn’t really matter, I explained to him, people, even very knowledgable people, need to have faith in life because it is impossible to know or control everything. That faith will liberate you from anxiety and fear as long as you don’t doubt about it. ”Ha, then I got it. It is good to have God then.’  I wonder whether he really did, but I was happy that he got the chance to know more about it. When I was a teenager, I never understood why scientists like Newton and Einstein would even consider God. At that time I thought that belief in God equalled ignorance and irrationality. Only much later did I realize that the ignorance was mine. It can be a perfectly rational choice to just believe.

Hot antibiotics, cold calculations

Concerns for antimicrobial resistance evolve like fashion:  it gets hip, fades out, then gets hip again.  These days antibiotics hit the news again after the consumers organisation announced that almost all chicken in the supermarket is infected with ESBL (an enyzme that makes bacteria resistant to most antibiotics). As the news travels, everybody at work is talking about antibiotics: not only my colleagues who have been busy monitoring veterinary antibiotic use in livestock sectors for years , but also colleagues who had never thought about antibiotics as something interesting are considering research on antibiotics. 

I am concerned and excited at the same time.  A year ago,  when the ’antibiotic alarm’ was sounded in the media, I had the idea of conducting research on the economics of anti-antibiotics to analyse the economic aspects of reducing antibiotic use in livestock production. It seemed to me that many arguments for restricting antibiotic use in livestock production were not well grounded and the pros and cons are far from being well understood.  Most people are not aware of the fact that the presence of resistant bacteria poses merely a hazard to human health and not per se a high risk. Antibiotic resistance is primarily a microbiological phenomenon which may or may not have clinical implications for human beings. Also less known is that veterinary antibiotic use is merely one of many sources that contribute to the increase of antimicrobial resistance.

From the perspective of managing antibiotic sensitivity as a ’man-made’  non-renewable natural resource and treating resistance as an externality not properly priced in the market, I believe that economic analysis has a great potential to generate feasible and efficient solutions to the antibiotic issue. Unfortunately, my research proposal was considered too general at that time. That was reasonable because I had done but a little empirical work back then. In the months there after, I have been looking at our monitoring data on antibiotic use in combination with our farm accountancy data and busy writing up the findings. Much can be said about the claim that antibiotics are overused or misused in livestock production, but it is clear that economic analysis is far from being well-developed in this field. Perhaps the time is finally ripe to go deeper into the dust cloud of the media hype to look at the forces that are fundamentally at work.  (to be continued)

Risk, Information management and project lingo

A while ago I mentioned that in my group, called Risk and Information Management , the cooperation between the ’information’ people and ‘risk’  people was practically nonexistent. It was quite peculiar, considering the obvious link between information and risk. 

I had always been wondering when the situation would change. But the change happened sooner than I thought–well, I initiated it. It took just a small talk during a coffee break to join one of our largest research programmes concerning Future Internet and Agri-food, SmartAgriFood.  I was quite excited about it: besides the content that seems attractive to a heavy internet user like me, it seems to me a great opportunity to get acquainted with the ins and outs of European projects. 

My first assignment was to prepare for a TelCo for which a Doodle call was published on the WebDav of the project. Meeting documents were also put in the DropBox of my colleague. My first project meeting was to attend the work shop on ‘Lauching a Coalition for Action on ICT in regional programmes’ at the Commission in Brussels. It felt a bit strange for someone with an Asian face to talk about Smart Specialisation in Europe, but I felt quite comfortable with terms like Ex ante conditionalities and ex post conditionalities. Europe is not just about the races. Above all, I enjoyed the faultless English from the British, and couldn’t help falling for the charm of the Spanish. It was a nice trip…even just to get used to all the project lingo.

Serendipity

Things don’t always work out the way we would like them to, but sometimes they deviate for the better. I came across the word ‘serendipity’ while browsing a list of movies a few years ago and picked the movie out of curiosity. The movie sucked and was soon forgotten, but the concept of serendipity keeps lingering in my mind.  

Well, I had no intention to read my horoscope today– I merely intended to quickly look something up before I continue with my nearly finished paper. But I hit the wrong place and was instantly struck by the words there:

Learning about diverse topics is usually fun for you, but today is a day to focus on one thing. Instead of continuing to expand your knowledge on this, that and the other thing, pick one area and stick with it! Too much movement back and forth between topics is diluting any educational value you think you are gaining. Right now you need to finish something. Once you put the period at the end of the final sentence, you can feel free to move on — but not until then!

Wow, the big universe is watching me???

positive frame of mind

One day when I rushed into the elevator of my flat I saw a neighbour holding a big basket of food and drinks.  After the elevator door closed, he just kept his eyes fixed on the food and remained silent. 

 ’So, it looks like you are having a big party!!’ In my positive frame of mind, I made a cheerful comment to liven up the atmosphere a bit. 

“No…unlukily it’s not true”, the man forced a smile,  but it was more like a chagrin. 

“Oh, come on, be a bit more friendly and positive”, in my mind I grumbled to myself, ”how hard is that?”.  

As if read my mind, the man looked into my eyes and said: “my little son passed away yesterday, so we have some family visits today. But it’s not a party.”. His words really struck me, and the sorrow in his eyes. How could I have missed that? I had so much sympathy for the man that I felt ashamed of the prejudice of my ‘positive’ frame of mind.

to strike while the iron is hot

Getting older has its advantages, at least for those myopic people like me. When my headache got worse with the new glasses, I started to doubt whether the new glasses were all right for me and went to consult another optician. To my great surprise, I was told by the optometrician, after a whole procedure of measuring, that my vision has actually improved rather than deteriorated. ’It is a normal phenomenon that your vision can improve when you grow older.’, the grey-haired optometrician said that to me gently, as if the words ‘grow older’  would hurt me.

With hindsight, I should have waited with my previous decision to purchase the new pair of glasses with much higher power. But at that time I was so happy to discover the cause for my headache that I completely forgot to apply my usual ‘real-options’ way of thinking. As I wrote in my previous blog, decisions like purchasing new glasses are certainly not  ’now or never’, have sunk costs, and have uncertain outcomes–a textbook example of real options.

But I was in a very different mindset at the time when I visited the first optician. It was the day that I received the e-mail from Brian, who read my blog and shared with me his new thought on real options:  There are lots of decisions in life that are ‘now or never’, i.e., for which the option of waiting is not real. Such as the decision to learn to ski…if you keep postponing it, someday you will be too old to do that. The same can apply in business- the niche market is there but if you are not the first to jump in, the opportunity will be lost. 

“It is of course silly to have regrets about what might have been”, wrote Brian, ”But the young should be aware of the maxim to ‘strike while the iron is hot’ “.

Well, I guess I must have taken the maxim a bit too far and struck the wrong iron…

the beauty of doing nothing

In one of my ‘therapeutic’ afternoons I passed by a hair salon and decided to get my rebellious hair trimmed there. I was a bit in a hurry to do the groceries so I suggested the hairdresser skip the washing.  In reply, she asked me whether I had put anything in my hair. When I told her that I did put some gel, she said that she would then have to wash my hair. “Sorry, but otherwise the blades of the scissors would become blunt too soon.”

The blades made blunt by my hair??

While sitting on the massage chair having my hair washed, I kept thinking about her remark.  That something so strong and sharp as the blade of the scissors can be made blunt by something so light and soft as the hair is revealing. It is the power of many, however light and soft as individual, that collectively wears out the strongest few. 

But it is the gel that makes the hair harder and increases the damage to the blade, not the hair in its purest state. To remove the hair with gel, it is better to wash the hair first, then cut the clean hair with the scissors. Simply let water and time do their job.  

One thing at a time. Let the problems soften themselves. Take breaks. Preserve the strength for the right moment. Enjoy Il bel far niente, the beauty of doing nothing…the key to the sustainability of strength.

Complex adaptive systems

My research concerns many health issues, but health had never been more of a concern to me than it is now. After being healthy and energetic for many years, you tend to forget how it is like to be ailing and tired. And sometimes you are just too busy to get ill. Then there comes the day when your body refuses to work for you…To me, that happens when I was attending a meeting on ‘complex adaptive systems’, a research theme I was greatly interested in.

The last three weeks I have been struggling with a lingering headache, neck pain, and dizziness that sometimes drove me to nuts. I feel like the captain of a stranded ship, abandoned by my will and strength, resting but unable to rest. In those miserable days, being examined by one doctor after the other without any conclusive diagnosis, I often thought of Doctor House, the misanthropic medical genius in my favorite TV-series.  How I wish that he existed and could diagnose my problem!  I couldn’t help admiring his ability to reason flawlessly even in pain.  If someone could get him to cure me, I would be ready tolerate his most cynical remarks.

After three weeks of taking things easy and getting myself fixed, my energy is gradually coming back. The diagnosis seems to be a combination of vertebral subluxation and vitamin D deficiency. It fits, as House would say. With hindsight, all my ailments seem logical and well deserved. 

I was unable to produce a research proposal on ‘Complex adaptive systems’ on time, but I feel lucky that I could stop my ill-directed train before things go really wrong. Our body seems to have built-in feedbacks to prevent us from working ourselves to an irreversible drawn-out. It is wonderful to be part of a complex adaptive system.

Non sequitur

My son is a studious kid but he is not always very fast with learning.  In particular, he seems to have some difficulty with algebra, but he does like it. Ever since I noticed that, doing exercises in algebra becomes one of the favorite pastime between us. The exercises would keep him busy and give me some time to do my own things, or doing nothing.

This usually goes well: my son happily solved the exercises and I got my things done. But sometimes we’d both end up in frustration: my son got stuck somewhere and I really couldn’t understand why–it all seemed simple and obvious to me.  “I must have got that part of my genes from dad”, my son would mock himself and his dad. 

When he told this to his father, he assured him that there is nothing wrong with his genes. Mom should just be more patient. It is a matter of concentration and exercises.  To cheer the child up, he made the following ‘math’ exercise: 

You wanted to become a bus driver when you were in kindergarten, right?  Now imagine, you are now a bus driver of Line 4. You started the bus from the central station with three passengers. At the first bus stop, two passengers got off and three passengers got on the bus. At the second bus stop, five passengers got on the bus and two passengers got off. At the third stop, three passengers got on the bus and three got off the bus. Now the question is, how old is the bus driver?

Son (giving up after some muddling with the number): ‘But you didn’t tell me all the conditions, I cannot know it with the information you gave me!’

Father:  ”Of course you can! I have definitely given you sufficient information. Listen again, imagine you are now a bus driver of Line 4. You started the bus from the central station with three passengers, oh, no, four passengers, okay, five passengers, never mind, three passengers, …..”

Son: “But it is really impossible to calculate!” . He got really intrigued and begged his dad to tell him the answer.

Father: “Oh, oh, kid, you just didn’t listen to me very well. Hadn’t I told you that you were the bus driver? Don’t you know how old you are?”

haastig spoed

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/world/asia/25train.html

“China, please stop your flying pace, wait for your people, wait for your soul, wait for your morality, wait for your conscience! Don’t let the train run out off track, don’t let the bridges collapse, don’t let the roads become traps, don’t let houses become ruins. Walk slowly, allowing every life to have freedom and dignity. No one should be left behind by our era.”

It’s heart wrenching to read about the tragedies in an accident of such scale, even more to realize that there is not much an individual can do about it. I was extremely upset because it confirmed my remote worries so soon.  A few months ago there was an article in The Economist about scandals and financial problems in Chinese high-speed railways. That article caught my son’s attention. While explaining to him the content of that article, I also expressed my concerns about the safety of those bullet trains in China and told him to avoid travelling with those trains. They were developed way too fast, so fast that it would be impossible to test all the technologies and train all the people. And given all the financial scandals, it is more than likely that construction quality would be jeopardized because everybody wants to make money. Sooner or later, there will be problems. I had in mind that the problem would occur in a few years….but this is way too soon.  Will things change after such a painful lesson? Will people tame their frenzy for speed? I really hope they do. May all the victims rest in peace.